Weekly Market Report: October 26 to 30, 2026

Global markets closed October with a sharp change in sentiment. US equities advanced early in the week but fell hard on Friday, oil remained exposed to Middle East supply threats, and inflation kept interest rate expectations at the centre of currency trading.

The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00%. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.50%, New Zealand held at 2.75% after a close vote, and higher Australian inflation shifted expectations for Australian monetary policy. These differences affected major pairs and crosses well beyond EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

The cryptocurrency market faced a separate shock when Binance reported approximately $6.3 billion of token assets stolen, with roughly $3 billion frozen on chain. Frozen assets are not necessarily recovered funds. This report separates confirmed developments from market interpretation, and is not a signal or prediction.

US equities opened positively. The S&P 500 rose approximately 0.70% and the Nasdaq Composite gained about 0.82%, supported by renewed interest in technology and artificial intelligence investment.

Forex traders prepared for a crowded central bank calendar. Dollar pairs, yen pairs and commodity currencies remained sensitive to changing interest rate expectations. Oil eased amid hopes for progress in Middle East diplomacy, although risks to energy infrastructure remained.

Trading lesson: a positive Monday does not determine the rest of the week. Review both currencies in a pair and wait for the entry conditions in your own plan.

The S&P 500 gained approximately 0.60% and the Nasdaq advanced 1.18%. Technology shares extended their rebound even as traders remained cautious before the Federal Reserve announcement.

The US dollar strengthened against several major counterparts. EUR/USD and GBP/USD softened and USD/JPY moved higher. The Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars remained sensitive to their domestic policy outlooks and commodity markets.

WTI crude moved toward $101 per barrel as diplomatic prospects moderated immediate supply fears. Gold drew some interest and Bitcoin recovered modestly.

Trading lesson: positioning ahead of a scheduled announcement can reverse when the decision arrives. Do not confuse an anticipatory move with confirmation.

The Federal Reserve left the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00% by a 10 to 2 vote. The two dissenters preferred an immediate increase of 0.25 percentage points. The statement described strong activity but inflation that remained elevated.

The Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.50%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its rate at 2.75% by a four to three vote, disappointing traders expecting immediate tightening. The New Zealand dollar faced selling pressure.

Australia reported September annual inflation of 4.3%, up from 4.0% in August. Expectations of tighter Australian policy supported AUD relative to NZD. Oil also rose as threats to Saudi energy infrastructure renewed supply concerns.

Trading lesson: when central banks move in different directions, crosses such as AUD/NZD and CAD/JPY can tell a different story from the dollar index.

US third quarter GDP grew at an annualised rate of 3.4%, compared with 2.2% in the preceding quarter. September annual PCE inflation stood at 3.6%, and core PCE inflation was 3.1%. Resilient activity alongside persistent price pressure complicated the outlook for interest rates.

The European Central Bank held its deposit rate at 2.50% and highlighted energy related inflation risks. Traders assessed the euro, pound and other European currencies against those policy conditions. The Nasdaq declined around 1.38% as investors reconsidered the cost of large AI investments.

At approximately 20:05 UTC, Binance experienced unauthorised withdrawals following a compromise of infrastructure associated with its hot wallets. The security incident became a major cryptocurrency market story on Friday.

Trading lesson: strong growth is not automatically bullish for equities or bearish for currencies. The critical question is how new data changes policy expectations.

The Nasdaq fell 2.86%, the S&P 500 declined 1.82% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.09%. Concerns about corporate AI spending and earnings projections weighed heavily on technology stocks.

The Bank of Japan held its policy rate while leaving room for additional tightening. The yen recovered against the dollar during Friday trading. Sterling also strengthened ahead of the following week's Bank of England decision, while the Swiss franc and Canadian dollar attracted attention for different policy and risk reasons.

December Brent futures settled near $117.64 per barrel and WTI near $104.12 as Middle East shipping and infrastructure risks resurfaced. Gold and silver weakened despite geopolitical concerns. Bitcoin fell to a reported six week low around $77,646 following the Binance disclosure.

For the week, the S&P 500 lost around 0.6%, the Nasdaq declined 2.0%, and the Dow lost 0.9%, while the Russell 2000 gained about 1.3%. Trading lesson: a risk driven selloff does not produce an identical response in every asset.

EUR/USD was influenced by the different policy outlooks of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. GBP/USD reflected UK fiscal and rate expectations as well as the dollar. USD/JPY responded to Japanese policy signals and changing bond yields. AUD/USD found support from higher Australian inflation, while NZD/USD weakened after New Zealand's decision to hold rates.

USD/CAD reflected the Bank of Canada's rate increase and the oil market, although the Canadian dollar and crude do not always move together. USD/CHF was influenced by the dollar, yields and defensive demand for the franc.

Cross pairs broadened the picture. AUD/NZD highlighted differences between Australian and New Zealand policy expectations. EUR/GBP reflected relative euro and sterling performance. GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY, CHF/JPY and NZD/JPY depended on both yen developments and the other currency's domestic drivers.

Also watch EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, EUR/CHF, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF, GBP/NZD and AUD/CAD. For regional markets, USD/CNY, USD/MXN, USD/NOK, USD/SEK, USD/ZAR, USD/INR and USD/TRY require attention to local policy, capital flows and market liquidity. No unsupported weekly returns are assigned to these instruments.

The principle is straightforward: every Forex pair contains two economies. A dollar view alone is not a complete analysis.

Monday and Tuesday gains were followed by weakness as investors reassessed whether the profit outlook justified heavy spending on artificial intelligence. Friday's losses were concentrated in technology and semiconductors, with Intel's outlook adding pressure.

Different sectors and company sizes performed differently. Weekly losses in the three main US indexes contrasted with a gain in the Russell 2000. Equity index direction should not be mistaken for uniform performance across every stock.

Brent and WTI remained exposed to attacks affecting Saudi energy infrastructure, tensions around Iran and shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz. Reports of diplomacy could ease the supply risk premium, while new disruptions could increase it.

Higher energy costs can raise transport and production expenses and complicate inflation and interest rate expectations. This can influence currencies of both energy exporters and importers, but the relationships are not mechanical.

Gold and silver fell sharply during Friday's broader reassessment of risk. Higher expected interest rates and the possibility of liquidity driven selling outweighed some demand associated with geopolitical uncertainty.

Gold does not automatically rise when equities fall. Traders should review real yields, the US dollar, liquidity conditions and inflation expectations. Copper and other industrial metals respond additionally to manufacturing demand, China and supply conditions, so a single commodity narrative is insufficient.

Binance said that its hot wallets were compromised at around 20:05 UTC on October 29, resulting in approximately $6.3 billion of unauthorised withdrawals. The company's initial investigation considered a compromised engineer's laptop, but later identified additional points of breach. Binance reported no evidence of leaked wallet private keys at the time of its October 30 update; the full sequence remained under investigation.

Binance reported that approximately $3 billion in affected assets had been frozen on chain. It said it had set aside more than $6.34 billion in company resources to address the losses, with about $5 billion already held in the affected token types. Frozen assets have not necessarily been recovered, and company funds allocated for coverage are not recovered stolen assets.

Binance committed to cover losses using its user protection fund and corporate resources. It announced phased withdrawal restoration subject to security checks, continued asset recovery efforts, a new Proof of Reserves report targeted for November 2 and a technical incident review. These were announced plans rather than completed independently verified outcomes.

Bitcoin, Ether and BNB came under selling pressure as the incident affected confidence. Our assessment: an exchange security failure is custody and counterparty risk, distinct from market direction. Traders should review authentication, withdrawal access, asset concentration and the credibility of recovery claims rather than react emotionally.

US PCE inflation reached 3.6% annually and Australian annual inflation reached 4.3%. Together with elevated oil prices, these data points kept the prospect of restrictive monetary policy in focus.

Persistent energy inflation can affect businesses and households as well as currencies and equity valuations. Geopolitical risks are uncertain: diplomacy could reduce the oil risk premium, while renewed disruptions could raise it. Neither outcome should be presented as certain.

Markets react to the difference between economic results and expectations. A central bank can hold rates yet signal tighter policy. A currency can outperform one counterpart and weaken against another.

Use cross market information as context, not as a replacement for your own setup. Check both currencies, the event calendar, liquidity conditions and the reason a trade idea would be invalidated. Do not treat a breakout, large candle or liquidity sweep as sufficient confirmation by itself.

Before entering, record the catalyst, session, planned entry, stop, position risk and account limits. Major announcements may cause spreads and slippage to increase. Prop firm traders must also respect their own drawdown and prohibited trading rules.

After a session, compare execution with the plan rather than judging the process only by profit or loss. A missed trade is acceptable. Revenge trading, oversizing or chasing a move to recover a loss is not a disciplined response.

Monday brings US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the publication targeted for Binance's updated Proof of Reserves. Tuesday includes the Reserve Bank of Australia decision, US JOLTS data and the US congressional midterm elections.

Wednesday's calendar includes euro area inflation, New Zealand employment figures, US ADP employment and ISM Services PMI. Thursday brings the Bank of England decision and other monetary policy developments. Friday includes US nonfarm payrolls and Canadian employment figures. Release schedules can change; verify them before trading.

New York daylight saving time ends on November 1. Traders outside the United States should check their local session and broker clock changes before the new trading week.

Tradeloggy provides trading journals, analytics, performance review and educational tools. This report is general education and market information, not investment advice, trading signals or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

Forex, CFDs and cryptocurrencies involve significant risk. Market quotes can differ across data providers and broker contracts. Security investigation findings and announced recovery actions may change as more information becomes available.